01373206

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2305-13

http://scholar.google.com...Wang&publication_year=2012

"Reliability," as defined in the "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide" (MEPDG), is an aggregated indicator defined as the probability that each of the key performance measures will be less than a selected critical level over the design period. Being such a complex system, the MEPDG—which is not a single closed-form design equation—cannot depend on classic reliability methods. Monte Carlo simulation is suitable for a robust reliability analysis but is impractical because of the extensive computation time required for any reasonable analysis with the MEPDG. The development of surrogate models for performance predictions becomes an option to represent the comprehensive modeling capability of the MEPDG efficiently. Improvements to the MEPDG reliability model based on several statistical methods are described. Five tasks are detailed. First, the MEPDG is calibrated to local conditions to reduce potential bias and variation from the national calibration. Then, risk analysis and screen analysis are conducted to determine the significant variables to include in surrogate models. Next, a comprehensive experimental design effectively plans MEPDG simulations. Then, response surface models of MEPDG are built through regression analysis. Finally, probabilistic design is achieved by Monte Carlo simulation. The result of these efforts is a state-specific MEPDG-based probabilistic pavement design tool kit named ReliME. This framework provides engineers more flexibility in data acquisition, design alternatives, optimization, and quality control. The framework’s successful application in Arkansas could easily be used in other states and incorporated into future mechanistic–empirical pavement design software.

01470561

12-2831

English

pp 121–130

2012

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309263139

Print

Figures; References; Tables

Monte Carlo method; Pavement design; Pavement performance; Regression analysis; Simulation; Statistical analysis

Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide

Probabilistic design

Arkansas

Design; Highways; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 8 2012 5:12PM

• Calibrating "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide" for North Carolina: Genetic Algorithm and Generalized Reduced Gradient Optimization Methods
• Comparison of Design Thicknesses for Flexible Airfield Pavement Based on Agency Limiting Subgrade Strain Criteria
• Concrete Pavement Joint Diagnostics with Ultrasonic Tomography
• Development of Mechanistic–Empirical Design Procedure for Fully Permeable Pavement Under Heavy Traffic
• Establishing Effective Linear Temperature Gradients for Ultrathin Bonded Concrete Overlays on Asphalt Pavements
• Evaluating the Effect of Concrete Slab Curling on Joint Load Transfer Responses
• Evaluation of Representative Loading Frequency for Linear Elastic Analysis of Asphalt Pavements
• Improved Mechanistic–Empirical Continuously Reinforced Concrete Pavement Design Approach with Modified Punchout Model
• Induction Healing of Porous Asphalt
• Joint Load Transfer and Support Considerations for Jointed Precast Concrete Pavements
• Load and Resistance Factors and Design Parameter Offsets for "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide"
• Method for Evaluating Implications of Climate Change for Design and Performance of Flexible Pavements
• Modification of "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide" Procedure for Two-Lift Composite Concrete Pavements
• New Warping and Differential Drying Shrinkage Models for Jointed Plain Concrete Pavements Derived with Nonlinear Shrinkage Distribution
• Rational Use of Terminal Anchorages in Portland Cement Concrete Pavement
• Streamlining Use of "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide"
• Structural Coefficient of Open-Graded Friction Course