01373672

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2305-12

http://scholar.google.com...nder&publication_year=2012

A method to assess the impacts of forecasted climate change on pavement deterioration is presented. Traditional methods of pavement design use historic climate data and assume that climate is stationary with time. Climate change challenges this assumption of stationarity (i.e., natural driving forces of engineering have a variability described by a time-invariant probability density function). Therefore, the use of historic climate data is insufficient for the prediction of climate conditions. The focus is on the preparation and the use of climate model data sets as inputs to the "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide" (MEPDG) model to simulate flexible pavement performance and deterioration over time. The method is illustrated with a case study that uses future climate model temperature data from three North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program scenarios at four sites across New England. Pavement distress predicted with future temperature scenarios is compared with that from MEPDG temperature data. Application of the method demonstrates the importance of matching the overlapping periods before using climate forecast output in the MEPDG. Although the simulated impact of future temperature changes on pavement performance was negligible for alligator cracking at the four study sites, asphalt concrete rutting differences were great enough to warrant additional consideration and to suggest that climate change and variability in future climate scenarios could affect pavement design and evaluation. The proposed method can be used to evaluate the impact of other climate variables alone or in combination. The method also can readily use new climate model output and be adapted for new downscaling methods.

01470561

12-1508

English

pp 111–120

2012

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309263139

Print

Figures; References; Tables

Climate change; Deterioration by environmental action; Evaluation and assessment; Flexible pavements; Methodology; Pavement design; Pavement distress; Pavement performance; Rutting

Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide

New England

Design; Highways; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 8 2012 5:02PM

• Calibrating "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide" for North Carolina: Genetic Algorithm and Generalized Reduced Gradient Optimization Methods
• Comparison of Design Thicknesses for Flexible Airfield Pavement Based on Agency Limiting Subgrade Strain Criteria
• Concrete Pavement Joint Diagnostics with Ultrasonic Tomography
• Development of Mechanistic–Empirical Design Procedure for Fully Permeable Pavement Under Heavy Traffic
• Establishing Effective Linear Temperature Gradients for Ultrathin Bonded Concrete Overlays on Asphalt Pavements
• Evaluating the Effect of Concrete Slab Curling on Joint Load Transfer Responses
• Evaluation of Representative Loading Frequency for Linear Elastic Analysis of Asphalt Pavements
• Improved Mechanistic–Empirical Continuously Reinforced Concrete Pavement Design Approach with Modified Punchout Model
• Induction Healing of Porous Asphalt
• Joint Load Transfer and Support Considerations for Jointed Precast Concrete Pavements
• Load and Resistance Factors and Design Parameter Offsets for "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide"
• Modification of "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide" Procedure for Two-Lift Composite Concrete Pavements
• New Warping and Differential Drying Shrinkage Models for Jointed Plain Concrete Pavements Derived with Nonlinear Shrinkage Distribution
• Rational Use of Terminal Anchorages in Portland Cement Concrete Pavement
• Reliability-Based Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design with Statistical Methods
• Streamlining Use of "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide"
• Structural Coefficient of Open-Graded Friction Course