01370043

Component

A direct discrete mode choice model is introduced using relative attributes of competing modes as well as socio-economic characteristics of travelers. The model is calibrated and validated for two available historic databases in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) region. The proposed model was found to be easier to calibrate and produced more accurate results than the nested Logit model, commonly used by many metropolitan planning organizations. The demographic and level of service data used in calibration were for the 1999 base year. The validation was conducted against the outputs of a current nested Logit model used by the regional planning organization as well as the observed values based on transit ridership surveys for a newly-inaugurated commuter rail service in the region. The calibrated model was applied after the introduction of this new transit mode. The results showed that the estimated mode shares by the proposed model had a statistically better consistency with the observed values than the estimates of the conventional nested Logit model. The latter results were attained by using the proposed model as calibrated for the base year. Unlike the Logit model, the structure of the direct model based on relative attributes also had the advantage of not needing recalibration each time a new travel mode was introduced.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40 Transportation Demand Forecasting

01362476

12-0932

English

21p

2012

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Choice models; Discrete systems; Level of service; Logits; Mode choice; Railroad commuter service; Socioeconomic factors; Validation

Nested logit models

Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan Area

Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I71: Traffic Theory

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2012 Paper #12-0932

TRIS, TRB

Feb 8 2012 4:58PM