01337484

Component

Within the broad patterns of use of personal vehicles, varying by usual speed, the competitive position of various types of electric drive and conventional engines are discussed. A quantitative evaluation of electric drive in light duty passenger cars follows. Fuel and electricity consumption of a mid-size vehicle with a low load glider using a conventional gasoline powertrain and seven different powertrains with varying degrees of use of electric drive is estimated by simulation for two on-road driving cycles representative of typical metropolitan area driving (congested city driving with frequent stops, and less congested suburban driving). Major classes of electric drive evaluated are the split-parallel-and-series system in both hybrid (HEV) and two plug-in hybrid (PHEV) versions, three series extended range electric vehicles (ER-EV), and a battery electric powertrain (EV). A cost model is used to estimate initial retail price of the eight vehicles. The ER-EV and EV have battery packs and electric machines with adequate power to provide a capability to consistently drive all electrically; the less expensive PHEV does not. The authors analyze vehicles not used for work, which depart from and return to the house, presuming capability to use a home charger during the day as well as overnight. Incremental Benefit/Cost ratios relative to the split hybrid (HEV) vehicle are constructed, incorporating costs of upgrading charging infrastructure to allow rapid daytime charging, as necessary. If gasoline prices rise to 4-5 $/gallon, areas with suburban driving become cost beneficial for nearly all electric drive vehicles because (1) predicted fuel saving per hour of operation is greater than in congested city driving conditions, (2) vehicles are driven considerably more hours per day, and (3) inexpensive level 1 charging in garages is broadly feasible. On congested city roadway networks the electric drive powertrains are estimated to remain an inferior financial choice relative to conventional gasoline. As have many others before us, the authors predict declining $/kWh of battery pack cost as plug-in electric range increases (holding peak electric kW constant), making long range plug-in electric drive capability relatively more attractive than computed by those who estimate that battery pack $/kWh costs for plug-in vehicles are identical to those for HEVs.

01329018

11-3733

English

18p

2011

Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting

DVD

References (36) ; Tables (3)

Benefit cost analysis; Electric drives; Electric vehicle charging; Electric vehicles; Fuel consumption; Hybrid vehicles; Metropolitan areas; Plug-in hybrid vehicles; Traffic congestion; Vehicle drive systems

Fuel prices

Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment; I10: Economics and Administration

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2011 Paper #11-3733

TRIS, TRB

Feb 17 2011 6:37PM