01333329

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2226-13

http://scholar.google.com...nald&publication_year=2011

The "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide" (MEPDG) is a powerful predictor of pavement distress, but it is computationally expensive to evaluate. Analyses that require many MEPDG evaluations, such as sensitivity analysis and design optimization, become impractical because of the computational expense. These applications are important in achieving robust, reliable, and cost-effective pavement designs. This paper develops Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models that, with a trivial amount of computational expense, accurately approximate the results of the MEPDG for each relevant distress mode. The GP is validated in accordance with three model metrics: average predictive percent error, predictive coefficient of determination, and Bayes factor. The GP models are then exploited for sensitivity analysis and design optimization, making these tasks computationally affordable.

01353811

11-2704

English

pp 119-126

2011

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309167369

Print

Figures (1) ; References (11) ; Tables (4)

Mathematical models; Optimization; Pavement design; Pavement distress; Sensitivity analysis; Validation

Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide

Computational efficiency; Gaussian processes

Design; Highways; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways

PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 17 2011 6:15PM

• Analysis of Perpetual Pavement Experiment Sections in China
• Bootstrapping Procedure to Determine Convergence in Monte Carlo Simulations
• Calibration of Distress Models from the "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide" for Rigid Pavement Design in Argentina
• Calibration of the "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide" for Flexible Pavement Design in Arkansas
• Continuously Reinforced Concrete Pavement: Identification of Distress Mechanisms and Improvement of Mechanistic–Empirical Design Procedures
• Effect of Concrete Strength and Stiffness Characterization on Predictions of Mechanistic–Empirical Performance for Rigid Pavements
• Enhancing "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide" Rutting-Performance Predictions with Hamburg Wheel-Tracking Results
• Finite Element Model for Rutting Prediction of Flexible Pavement with Cementitiously Stabilized Base–Subbase
• Improvements to Modeling of Concrete Slab Curling by Using NIKE3D Finite Element Program
• Minnesota Road Research Data for Evaluation and Local Calibration of the "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide"’s Enhanced Integrated Climatic Model
• New Laboratory-Based Mechanistic–Empirical Model for Faulting in Jointed Concrete Pavement
• Sampling-Based Sensitivity Analysis of the "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide" Applied to Material Inputs
• Structural Analysis of Pervious Concrete Pavement
• Thirty-Year Performance Evaluation of Two-Layer Concrete Pavement System
• Toward Implementation of the "Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide" in Latin America: Preliminary Work in Chile