01337609

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2214-08

http://scholar.google.com...adud&publication_year=2011

Because adequate information on people’s travel behavior is often unavailable in developing countries, demand modeling for a new airport is difficult. This study presents a simple modeling approach that uses limited aggregate information about a country to generate a forecast for passenger patronage in a new airport. The model uses aggregate time-series information on the national level and patronage at other airports to develop a gravity-type demand model for the country. The demand model incorporates the possible competition with a substitute mode, which is often the case for air travel demand in a small country. Demand for the specific new airport is then calibrated by using the parameters from this demand model and a small passenger survey. This modeling approach is applied to forecast the demand for a new airport in a divisional capital in Bangladesh, for which no regional data on gross domestic product or population are available. The modeling approach can be useful to researchers and practitioners when extensive data about air travel behavior are not available.

01351429

11-0284

English

pp 59-68

2011

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309167284

Print

Figures (2) ; Maps (1) ; References (24) ; Tables (5)

Air travel; Airports; Competition; Developing countries; Forecasting; Gravity models; Time series; Travel behavior; Travel demand

Passenger demand

Bangladesh

Aviation; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 17 2011 5:23PM

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