00206130

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/hrr/1973/466/466-002.pdf

PROBABILISTIC DESIGN CONCEPTS HAVE BEEN APPLIED TO MODIFY THE AASHO INTERIM GUIDE FOR THE DESIGN OF RIGID PAVEMENT STRUCTURES; IT IS NOW POSSIBLE TO DESIGN FOR ANY SPECIFIED LEVEL OF RELIABILITY. THE MAJOR OBJECTIVE FOR APPLYING PROBABILISTIC CONCEPTS TO PAVEMENT DESIGN IS TO MAKE THE DESIGN PROCESS SENSITIVE TO THE MANY VARIABILITIES AND UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DESIGN, CONSTRUCTION, AND PERFORMANCE OF RIGID PAVEMENTS. THIS PROVIDES A RATIONAL MEANS OF DESIGNING AT VARYING LEVELS OF RELIABILITY DEPENDING ON THE PAVEMENT FUNCTION. THIS METHOD MAKES THE DESIGN PROCESS CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE PRESENT DETERMINISTIC METHOD AND, THEREFORE, UPGRADES THE CURRENT PROCEDURE. VARIANCE MODELS WERE DEVELOPED FOR THE PERFORMANCE EQUATION OF THE AASHO GUIDE TO PREDICT VARIATION IN PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE DUE TO STATISTICAL VARIATIONS IN TRAFFIC ESTIMATION, FLEXURAL STRENGTH AND MODULUS OF ELASTICITY OF CONCRETE, CONCRETE THICKNESS, JOINT CONTINUITY, FOUNDATION MODULUS, INITIAL SERVICEABILITY INDEX, AND LACK OF FIT OF THE AASHO PERFORMANCE EQUATION. ESTIMATES OF THE VARIATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THE VARIABLES LISTED ABOVE ARE OBTAINED BY ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM ACTUAL CONCRETE PAVEMENT PROJECTS. A NEW REVISED NOMOGRAPH IS DEVELOPED TO INCLUDE, AMONG OTHER THINGS, A SCALE FOR RELIABILITY AND A SCALE FOR THE OVERALL VARIANCE DETERMINED BY THE LEVEL OF QUALITY CONTROL EXERCISED, VARIATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DESIGN PARAMETERS, AND ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH TRAFFIC PREDICTIONS. THE VARIANCE MODELS ARE ALSO APPLIED TO DETERMINE THE RELATIVE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE DESIGN FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH RIGID PAVEMENT DESIGN AND TO QUANTIFY THE EFFECTS OF QUALITY CONTROL ON PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE.

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Rigid Pavement Design. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

01410377

Refiroiu, Mihai

pp 20-37

1973

Highway Research Record

52nd Annual Meeting of the Highway Research Board

0309022509

Digital/other

Figures (8) ; References (25) ; Tables (1)

Concrete pavements; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Nomographs; Pavement design; Pavement performance; Probability theory; Quality control; Reliability; Rigid pavements; Variance

Models

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Pavements

TRIS, TRB

May 15 1974 12:00AM

• CORRELATION OF KENTUCKY CBR'S AND SOIL SUPPORT VALUES
• ESTIMATION OF 18-KIP EQUIVALENT ON PRIMARY AND INTERSTATE ROAD SYSTEMS IN VIRGINIA
• FINITE-ELEMENT ANALYSIS OF CONCRETE SLABS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR RIGID PAVEMENT DESIGN
• FRACTURE (ULTIMATE STRENGTH) ANALYSIS OF ASPHALT PAVEMENT LAYERS RESULTING FROM TRAFFIC LOADING
• LAYER ANALYSIS OF THE BRAMPTON TEST ROAD AND APPLICATION TO PAVEMENT DESIGN
• PAVEMENT FEEDBACK DATA SYSTEM
• PAVEMENT SLABS RESTING ON ELASTIC FOUNDATION
• PRESTRESSED CONCRETE HIGHWAY PAVEMENT AT DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
• RELATIVE EFFECTS OF STRUCTURAL VARIABLES ON THE PERFORMANCE OF CONTINUOUS PAVEMENTS
• SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO DETERMINE THE RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF MATERIALS CHARACTERIZATION ON A FATIGUE-DAMAGE MODEL
• STIFFNESS HISTORY OF ASPHALT CONCRETE SURFACES IN ROADS
• THE PRINCIPLE OF SUPERPOSITION IN PAVEMENT ANALYSIS