00200376

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/hrr/1969/285/285-007.pdf

THE BAY AREA SIMULATION STUDY OR BASS MODEL IS A LARGE COMPLEX OF COMPUTER MODELS THAT HAS AS ITS GOAL FORECASTING FUTURE GROWTH WITHIN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE BASS MODEL IS COMPOSED OF THREE DISTINCT SUBMODELS. THE FIRST OF THESE IS THE EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION PROJECTION SUBMODEL THAT FORECASTS EMPLOYMENT BY 21 CATEGORIES AND POPULATION TOTALS FOR THE BAY AREA OVER THE PERIOD FROM 1970 TO THE YEAR 2020. THE RESULTS OR THE OUTPUT OF THIS SUBMODEL ARE FED INTO THE TWO OTHER SUBMODELS THAT ALLOCATE PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT, POPULATION, HOUSING, AND LAND DEVELOPMENT IN 777 SUBAREAS OF THE REGION. THE TIME REQUIRED TO TRAVEL FROM ONE PLACE OF EMPLOYMENT TO ALTERNATE PLACES OF RESIDENCE IS A KEY DETERMINANT OF ESTIMATED FUTURE LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE BASS MODEL. THESE ESTIMATES ARE MADE THROUGH THE USE OF A TIME-DISTANCE MATRIX ASSUMEDLY PORTRAYING THE TIME REQUIRED TO TRAVEL FROM THE CENTER OF ANY ONE OF THE 777 TRACTS TO EACH OF THE OTHER TRACTS IN THE 13-COUNTY BAY AREA. THE INFLUENCE OF PUBLIC POLICY VARIABLES IS REFLECTED PRIMARILY IN THE ASSUMPTIONS CONCERNING THE USABLE SUPPLY OF LAND AND THE TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES THAT WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE. IT HAS BEEN ASSUMED THAT CURRENT FREEWAY PLANS APPROVED BY THE STATE DIVISION OF HIGHWAYS WILL BE COMPLETED ON SCHEDULE AND THAT THE FIRST STAGE OF BART WILL BE COMPLETED BY 1970 AND THE SECOND STAGE BY 1980. /AUTHOR/

Paper sponsored by Committee on Socio-Economic Aspects of Highways and presented at the 48th Annual Meeting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

01410225

pp 82-91

1969

Highway Research Record

Digital/other

Figures (2) ; References (7)

Development; Employment; Freeways; Highway planning; Housings; Information processing; Land use; Mathematical models; Population forecasting; Real estate development; Simulation; Transportation; Transportation planning; Travel time; Work trips

Transportation models

Administration and Management; Transportation (General)

TRIS, TRB

Nov 24 1994 12:00AM

• A RESOURCE ALLOCATION MODEL FOR TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
• A TRANSPORTATION AND PRICE-SENSITIVE INTERREGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL
• DEVELOPMENT OF A TRANSIT COST ALLOCATION FORMULA
• ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION
• ENGINEERING-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ANALYSIS FOR TRANSPORT PLANNING IN DAHOMEY, WEST AFRICA
• Information Needs of Interstate Highway Motorists in Iowa
• PROJECTING AUTOMOBILE AVAILABILITY BY URBANIZED AREA
• THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS ACCRUING FROM THE SCENIC ENHANCEMENT OF HIGHWAYS
• THE ECONOMICS OF THE DIESEL FUEL TAX DIFFERENTIAL
• THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHWAY NETWORK STRUCTURE ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF WEST VIRGINIA