01157074

Component

Disaster evacuation studies most often address only one type of disaster such as a hurricane or nuclear incident. All-hazards emergency planning requires an understanding of how populations may respond to a range of disaster types. This study uses data from a survey of residents living in northern New Jersey to compare stated evacuation behavior under four hypothetical disaster scenarios–a hurricane, industrial accident, “dirty-bomb” attack and catastrophic nuclear explosion. Data includes responses from 2,218 completed interviews. Logistic regression models indicate that predictions of evacuation likelihood are more reliable under a hurricane scenario than for disasters with no advance notice. The analysis shows that risk perception and proximity are important determinants of evacuation behavior for all types of disasters; however, distance-decay functions vary according to disaster type. Socioeconomic variables play a more discernible role in predicting evacuation behavior under a hurricane scenario than other types of disasters.

01147878

10-1175

English

18p

2010

Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting

DVD

References (34) ; Tables (6)

Disaster preparedness; Disasters and emergency operations; Evacuation; Hurricanes; Incident management; Nuclear explosions; Security; Travel behavior

Emergency evacuations

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2010 Paper #10-1175

TRIS, TRB

Jan 25 2010 10:31AM