01152651

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2188-06

http://scholar.google.com...Park&publication_year=2010

Travel time unreliability is an important characterization of transportation systems. The appropriate modeling and reporting of travel time reliability is crucial for individual travelers as well as management agencies. A novel multistate model is proposed for travel time modeling and reporting. The model advances travel time modeling in two aspects. First, the multistate model provides much improved model fitting as compared with single-mode models. Second and more important, the proposed model provides a connection between travel time distributions and the underlying travel time state. This connection allows for the quantitative evaluation of the probability of each travel time state as well as the uncertainty associated with each state, for example, the probability of encountering congestion at a given time of day and the expected travel time if congestion is experienced. A simulation study was conducted to demonstrate the performance of the model. The proposed model was applied to field data collected at San Antonio, Texas. The variation of the model parameters as a function of time of day was also investigated. The simulation study and field data analysis confirmed the superiority of the multistate model over the state-of-practice single-mode travel time reliability models and for ease of interpretation.

01329026

10-0906

English

pp 46-54

2010

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309160629

Print

Figures (4) ; References (12) ; Tables (5)

Mathematical models; Periods of the day; Traffic congestion; Travel time

Field data; Travel time reliability

San Antonio (Texas)

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; I71: Traffic Theory

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 25 2010 10:25AM

• Adaptive Estimation of Noise Covariance Matrices in Unscented Kalman Filter for Multiclass Traffic Flow Model
• Calibration Issues for Multistate Model of Travel Time Reliability
• Cellular Automata Model for Work Zone Traffic
• Effect of Visible Light Transmission from Vehicle Windows on Traffic Flow of Car-Following
• Effects of Merging and Diverging on Freeway Traffic Oscillations: Theory and Observation
• Empirical Analysis of Merging Behavior at Freeway On-Ramp
• Empirical Results of Effects of Various Causal Factors on Car-Following Behavior
• Generic Calibration Framework for Joint Estimation of Car-Following Models by Using Microscopic Data
• Hybrid Extended Kalman Filtering Approach for Traffic Density Estimation Along Signalized Arterials: Use of Global Positioning System Data
• Identification and Calibration of Site-Specific Stochastic Freeway Breakdown and Queue Discharge
• Lagrangian Formulation of Multiclass Kinematic Wave Model
• Likelihood and Duration of Flow Breakdown: Modeling the Effect of Weather
• Macroscopic Characteristics of Lane-Changing Traffic
• Mental Workload, Longitudinal Driving Behavior, and Adequacy of Car-Following Models for Incidents in Other Driving Lane
• Mesoscopic Modeling of Bus Public Transportation
• Modeling Vehicular Merging Behavior Under Heterogeneous Traffic Conditions
• Onset of Congestion from Low-Speed Merging Maneuvers Within Free-Flow Traffic Stream: Analytical Solution
• Using Trajectory Data to Analyze Intradriver Heterogeneity in Car-Following