01095584

Component

Long-range, regional demographic projections are a critical component of local government planning for future infrastructure and services. However, because local governments frequently update studies, the accuracy of population projections is often not rigorously challenged. Inaccurate long-range demographic projections can have potentially serious consequences when they are incorporated into the traffic and revenue studies required to sell the commercial bonds needed for the construction of toll roads. Under these circumstances, tolling entities can incur significant expense or even jeopardize their credit worthiness, if grossly inaccurate demographic forecasts overestimate future toll road revenue. Alternatively, exceedingly low demographic projections may make a proposed toll road unable to secure financing or may lead toll agencies to pay higher bond rates than necessary. This paper reports the preliminary results of an ongoing study to assess the accuracy of agency-prepared demographic projections for the largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in Texas. Twenty different agency population projections prepared between 1958 and 1989 were collected and assessed against U.S. Census data for this study. The researchers found these agency population projections were frequently inaccurate and sometimes with a high margin of error. Not surprisingly, the margins of error tended to be greater in fast growing regions and in regions with volatile local economies. In some instances, population projections for early forecasts periods also had relatively high margins of error, thus reinforcing the assumptions of private sector investors who believe that significant risks exist at the early stages of bond repayment for tolled facilities.

01084478

08-2614

English

15p

2008

Transportation Research Board 87th Annual Meeting

DVD

Figures (4) ; References; Tables (1)

Bonds; Finance; Revenues; Statistical analysis; Strategic planning; Toll facilities; Toll roads

Texas

Data and Information Technology; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Terminals and Facilities; I10: Economics and Administration; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2008 Paper #08-2614

TRIS, TRB

Jan 29 2008 5:03PM