01049637

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2027-08

http://scholar.google.com...uros&publication_year=2007

“Uncertainty analysis” is a relatively new term in traffic capacity analysis, but it is routine in other areas of civil engineering. Three methods are proposed to examine the uncertainty of "Highway Capacity Manual" models caused by variance in the inputs: one-at-a-time, point estimate, and Monte Carlo simulation. These methods have different levels of computational intensity and input requirements. They are recommended for three levels of detail in probabilistic analysis, depending on the application. Correspondingly, the results of probabilistic analysis vary from simple upper and lower values to a comprehensive output with mean values, standard deviations, confidence intervals, and delay distributions. The methods were applied to a signalized intersection to demonstrate the application of the three levels of analysis. Field data were from an actuated signalized intersection in Honolulu, Hawaii. Application of the three methods is illustrated in detail. Although the probabilistic method is considered to be more robust than the existing deterministic method, the former is not recommended for application to every project. Options are given for conditions under which the probabilistic method should be applied and the appropriate level of probabilistic analysis.

01089135

English

0000-0001-6983-2321

pp 58-64

2007

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309104548

Print

Figures (4) ; References (36) ; Tables (3)

Case studies; Highway capacity; Monte Carlo method; Signalized intersections; Traffic delays; Traffic flow; Traffic models; Uncertainty

Highway Capacity Manual

Probabilistic analysis

Honolulu (Hawaii)

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; I71: Traffic Theory

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 8 2007 5:48PM

• Arrival-Based Uniform Delay Model for Exclusive Protected-Permitted Left-Turn Lane at Signalized Intersections
• Assessing the Impact of Turning Vehicles on Pedestrian Level of Service at Signalized Intersections: A New Perspective
• Driver Behavior Model of Saturation Flow
• Effect of Site and Population Characteristics on Freeway Bottleneck Capacity
• Errors in Analyses for Capacity and Timing Design of Signalized Intersections in Absence of Steady Queue Discharge Rates
• Estimating Truck Equivalencies for Freeway Sections
• Field Measurement of Approach Delay at Signalized Intersections Using Point Data
• Headway Acceptance Characteristics of U-Turning Vehicles at Unsignalized Intersections
• Implementing the Concept of Reliability for Highway Capacity Analysis
• Incorporation of Transportation User Perception into Evaluation of Service Quality of Signalized Intersections
• Relationship of Lane Width to Saturation Flow Rate on Urban and Suburban Signalized Intersection Approaches
• Total Approach Capacity at Signalized Intersections with Shared and Short Lanes: Generalized Model Based on a Simulation Study
• Travel Time Measurement Using Toll Infrastructure