01044966

Component

A state-level strategic highway safety plan should have crash reduction goals that lie within an achievable range. In anticipation of helping Virginia set proper goals for 2010, this study attempted (1) to forecast fatalities and injuries in 2010 under three scenarios for improving safety (status-quo condition, engineering interventions only, and legislative and engineering interventions; (2) to provide the probabilities of meeting different reduction goals; (3) to examine realistic goals for 2010. An autoregressive distributed lag with autoregressive errors model and an autoregressive integrated moving average model were employed. Fatalities and injuries in Virginia are forecast to increase in 2010. Realistic goals for Virginia by 2010 are a 10% (maximum of 20%) reduction in fatalities and a 5% (maximum of 10%) reduction in injuries. These goals assume that Virginia enacts a primary enforcement seat belt law and exercises enforcement efforts accordingly and deploys four engineering crash countermeasures comparable to the 20% to 30% level of statewide implementation of these countermeasures.

01042056

07-0792

English

16p

2007

Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meeting

CD-ROM

Figures (6) ; References (33)

Countermeasures; Crash data; Crash risk forecasting; Fatalities; Injuries; Mathematical models; Probability; Seat belts; Traffic crashes; Traffic law enforcement

Virginia

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2007 Paper #07-0792

BTRIS, TRIS, TRB

Feb 8 2007 5:23PM