01029685

Component

Properly specified infrastructure performance models are essential for accurate predictions of future conditions of infrastructure systems, which are key inputs to effective maintenance and rehabilitation decision making. Infrastructure distress initiation models are among the most complex of these performance models. Existing models of infrastructure distress initiation were developed using data from facilities built under idealized conditions (experimental data). While these studies were able to present useful insights regarding infrastructure deterioration, they do not allow a representation of a wide range of facilities and environmental conditions, nor do they properly describe field behavior. Empirical models based on observations of in-service facilities allow a more realistic representation of infrastructure performance. Developing such models, however, presents a more challenging problem due to the many limitations of field data, including measurement errors, data censoring and missing observations. In this paper we present the development of an empirical pavement overlay crack initiation model using survey data for the highway system in the state of Washington. Our research shows that a specification that captures the main factors responsible for the overlay crack initiation process, combined with careful analysis of the data, can produce models of sufficient realism for pavement management purposes.

01020180

06-1005

English

18p

2006

Transportation Research Board 85th Annual Meeting

CD-ROM

Figures (5) ; References; Tables (3)

Decision making; Deterioration; Infrastructure; Pavement management systems; Rehabilitation

Future issues; Infrastructure distress; Performance models; Stochastic duration modeling

Washington (State)

Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; Pavements; I60: Maintenance

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2006 Paper #06-1005

TRIS, TRB

Mar 3 2006 10:33AM