00818858

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1751-02

http://scholar.google.com...rans&publication_year=2001

The ability to predict accurately vehicular operating speeds is useful for evaluating the planning, design, traffic operations, and safety of roadways. Operating speed profile (OSP) models are used in the geometric design of highways to evaluate design consistency. Design consistency refers to the condition where the geometric alignment does not violate driver expectations. Existing OSP models have been developed using ordinary linear regression methods. However, the assumptions and limitations inherent to linear regression may at the very least complicate model formulation. If not acknowledged and corrected for, deviations from these assumptions can also adversely affect the efficacies of such models. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are modeling tools that do not impose the stringent assumptions and limitations imposed by regression. It is therefore of interest to know whether ANNs are viable alternatives to linear regression for OSP modeling. Two backpropagation ANNs for operating speed predictions for passenger cars on two-lane rural highways are evaluated, and their performances are compared with the performances of regression-based models. The results of these comparisons indicate that the explanatory powers of the ANN models are comparable with those developed by regression. The predictive powers of the two types of models were observed to be comparable, and ANNs were not limited by distributional or other constraints inherent to regression. Therefore, ANNs were determined to be a viable alternative to regression for OSP model construction.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1751, Geometric Design and the Effects on Traffic Operations 2001.

English

p. 9-17

2001

Transportation Research Record

0309072123

Figures (10) ; References (14) ; Tables (4)

Alternatives analysis; Mathematical prediction; Neural networks; Operating speed; Performance evaluations; Regression analysis; Rural highways; Two lane highways

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; I71: Traffic Theory

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Oct 18 2001 12:00AM

• CONTROLS FOR HORIZONTAL CURVE DESIGN
• DESIGN FACTORS THAT AFFECT DRIVER SPEED ON SUBURBAN STREETS
• GEOMETRIC DESIGN AND SAFETY ASPECTS OF ROUNDABOUTS
• GUIDELINES FOR OPPOSING LEFT-TURN LANE-LINE WIDTHS
• OPERATING SPEED PREDICTION ON CREST VERTICAL CURVES OF RURAL TWO-LANE HIGHWAYS IN NEBRASKA
• OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF FREEWAY RAMP DESIGN
• SAFETY EFFECT OF ROUNDABOUT CONVERSIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: EMPIRICAL BAYES OBSERVATIONAL BEFORE-AFTER STUDY
• SPEED BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS AT CURVED RAMP SECTIONS OF MINOR INTERCHANGES
• SPEED PREDICTION MODELS FOR TRUCKS ON TWO-LANE RURAL HIGHWAYS
• TRAVEL TIME COMPARISONS BETWEEN SEVEN UNCONVENTIONAL ARTERIAL INTERSECTION DESIGNS