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Title: DEVELOPMENT OF A STATEWIDE TRUCK TRIP FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON COMMODITY FLOWS AND INPUT-OUTPUT COEFFICIENTS
Accession Number: 00799024
Record Type: Component
Record URL: Availability: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Find a library where document is available Abstract: This research attempts to improve the modeling of statewide truck travel demand models by using commodity flow data from the U.S. Census Bureau, a private freight database (TRANSEARCH), and input-output (I-O) coefficients. The standard urban transportation planning modeling process was applied at the state level to estimate heavy truck trips. Economic-based I-O software was used to derive the I-O direct matrix and the I-O direct coefficients at the state level for developing the trip attraction rates for 28 manufacturing sectors. The Commodity Flow Survey from the U.S. Census Bureau together with a private database developed for Wisconsin were used to develop the trip production rates. Transportation planning software (TRANPLAN) was used to distribute and assign truck trips generated at the zonal level. The selected-link function in TRANPLAN was used to adjust the initial productions and attractions in order to generate link volumes that match the actual ground counts for 40 selected links. The model only required two iterations of the selected link analysis in order to produce an acceptable match with the ground counts, compared with three iterations for two prior similar models. The rapid convergence provides clear evidence that the disaggregate trip generation models give better initial estimates of trip productions and attractions than was possible with the prior studies. A "back forecast" of 15 years to the year 1977 was found to be reasonable both in terms of the percent root mean square error by volume group and the performance measures for five screen lines.
Supplemental Notes: This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1707, Freight Transportation Research.
Language: English
Corporate Authors: Transportation Research Board 500 Fifth Street, NW Authors: SORRATINI, J ASmith Jr, R LPagination: p. 49-55
Publication Date: 2000
Serial: ISBN: 0309066867
Features: References
(15)
; Tables
(7)
TRT Terms: Identifier Terms: Uncontrolled Terms: Geographic Terms: Subject Areas: Freight Transportation; Highways; Motor Carriers; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning
Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
Created Date: Sep 26 2000 12:00AM
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