00798880

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1699-13

http://scholar.google.com...rich&publication_year=2000

The capability to forecast pavement crack performance has been identified as a critical pavement management system (PMS) need. In particular, crack performance forecasting can support proactive pavement management strategies. However, previous attempts at developing crack forecasting models have met with limited success. Because of the complexity of the pavement crack progression mechanism over time, a dynamic forecasting model could be more appropriate as opposed to static forecasting models. The results of a research effort to develop an adaptive filter model to forecast a pavement crack index for Florida's highway network are summarized. The concept of the adaptive filter model is introduced along with its mathematical algorithm and modeling procedure. The adaptive filter model, which was developed with field data collected from Florida's highway network, is able to dynamically forecast crack performance on the basis of historical crack performance data. For the purpose of model evaluation, the adaptive filter model was compared with the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. According to the comparison results, the adaptive filter model had significantly lower errors as compared with the AR model, demonstrating better forecasting capability. The adaptive filter model was more responsive to unexpected changes in pavement performance than the AR model. Given these advantages, it appears that such an adaptive filter model may have considerable potential for use in PMS applications.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1699, Pavement Management and Monitoring.

English

p. 95-100

2000

Transportation Research Record

0309066778

Figures (5) ; References (14) ; Tables (5)

Algorithms; Alternatives analysis; Dynamic models; Errors; Forecasting; History; Mathematical models; Pavement cracking; Pavement management systems

Adaptive filter models; Autoregressive models; Field data

Florida

Design; Highways; History; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways; I23: Properties of Road Surfaces

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Sep 7 2000 12:00AM

• ACCURACY OF WEATHER DATA IN LONG-TERM PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE PROGRAM DATABASE
• APPLYING ECONOMIC CONCEPTS FROM LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS TO PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS
• ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK FOR ENHANCING SELECTION OF PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE STRATEGY
• DEVELOPING A QUANTITATIVE RATING SYSTEM FOR CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED CONCRETE PAVEMENT
• DEVELOPMENT OF PAVEMENT TYPE EVALUATION PROCEDURE FOR TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
• EARLY EVALUATION OF LONG-TERM PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE SPECIFIC PAVEMENT STUDIES-2, COLORADO
• EVALUATION OF ACCURACY OF SURFACE PROFILERS
• EVALUATION OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PROFILOGRAPH AND PROFILE-BASED ROUGHNESS INDEXES
• INCORPORATING ROAD SAFETY INTO PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT
• INVESTIGATION OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ROUGHNESS AND PAVEMENT SURFACE DISTRESS BASED ON WESTRACK PROJECT
• LABORATORY CALIBRATION AND IN SITU MEASUREMENTS OF MOISTURE BY USING TIME-DOMAIN REFLECTOMETRY PROBES
• MECHANISTIC ROUGHNESS MODEL BASED ON VEHICLE-PAVEMENT INTERACTION
• PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION OF A MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR UTILITY CUTS
• PROPOSED PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE MODELS FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES IN MICHIGAN
• PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF WISCONSIN PAVEMENTS AND TRADE-OFFS IN PAVEMENT IMPROVEMENT
• ROAD USER COST MODELS FOR NETWORK-LEVEL PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT
• SIMULATION MODEL FOR CALCULATING PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES INCLUDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
• SOLUTION OF PAVEMENT DETERIORATION EQUATIONS BY GENETIC ALGORITHMS
• STRUCTURED APPROACH TO MANAGING QUALITY OF PAVEMENT DISTRESS DATA: VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EXPERIENCE
• USING DURATION MODELS TO ANALYZE EXPERIMENTAL PAVEMENT FAILURE DATA
• USING PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM CONCEPTS TO DETERMINE THE COST AND IMPACT OF UTILITY TRENCHING ON AN URBAN ROAD NETWORK