00743719

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1587-06

http://scholar.google.com...Wade&publication_year=1997

The Clean Air Act requires that long-range transportation plans conform to emissions budgets established for nearer-term attainment years in state implementation plans (SIPs). This poses the question of whether travel growth in the intervening period may overwhelm the benefits of fleet turnover and adopted control strategies, with adverse implications for air quality and for conformity. Emissions trends are examined for three planning areas in California that are nonattainment for ozone. Forecasted emissions of ozone precursors for attainment years are compared with projected emissions for 2020. The latest model for estimation of on-road motor vehicle emissions in California is employed to estimate emissions, augmented by estimated effects of additional control strategies from the 1994 California ozone SIP. Alternative higher-growth travel forecasts for two areas, developed in consultation with regional transportation agency modeling staffs, are then applied to test the sensitivity of emissions to various travel growth scenarios. Ozone precursor emissions are found to remain within attainment year baseline levels for each growth scenario. Oxides of nitrogen emissions approach attainment year levels in one area, due to high projected growth in heavy-duty vehicle travel. Demonstrations of conformity to the ozone SIP for transportation planning horizon years are significantly aided by California's adopted and planned fuels and motor vehicle emissions control programs.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1587, Effects of Transportation on Energy and Air Quality.

English

p. 44-51

1997

Transportation Research Record

0309061695

Figures (1) ; References (6) ; Tables (3)

Air quality; Alternatives analysis; Conformity; Forecasting; Nonattainment areas; Ozone; Plan implementation; Pollutants; Sensitivity; State government agencies; Travel demand

Clean Air Act

State implementation plans

California

California

Environment; Highways; Planning and Forecasting

TRIS, TRB

Dec 24 1997 12:00AM

• ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLE PROGRAMS: APPLICABILITY OF GOVERNMENT INCENTIVES
• ANALYSIS OF MODAL EMISSIONS FROM DIVERSE IN-USE VEHICLE FLEET
• ANOTHER WAY TO GO? SOME IMPLICATIONS OF LIGHT-DUTY DIESEL STRATEGY
• BINARY RECURSIVE PARTITIONING METHOD FOR MODELING HOT-STABILIZED EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES
• COST ESTIMATES OF TRANSPORT AIR POLLUTION IN SANTIAGO, CHILE
• DEVELOPMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE MODAL EMISSIONS MODEL: OPERATING UNDER HOT-STABILIZED CONDITIONS
• EMISSIONS IMPACT OF ELIMINATING NATIONAL SPEED LIMITS: ONE YEAR LATER
• EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FROM VEHICLE RETIREMENT PROGRAMS
• FORECASTING COST PATH OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE DRIVE SYSTEM: MONTE CARLO EXPERIENCE CURVE SIMULATION
• IMPLICATIONS OF TRANSIENT MODE DURATION FOR SPATIALLY DISAGGREGATED HIGH-RESOLUTION EMISSION INVENTORY STUDIES
• MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR ESTIMATING EMISSIONS IN LARGE URBAN AREAS
• QUEUEING ALGORITHM FOR CALCULATING IDLING EMISSIONS IN FLINT--THE FLORIDA INTERSECTION AIR QUALITY MODEL
• TRANSITIONAL ALTERNATIVE FUELS AND VEHICLES MODEL
• USE OF EPISODIC CONTROLS TO REDUCE FREQUENCY AND SEVERITY OF AIR POLLUTION EVENTS