00732411

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1556-02

http://scholar.google.com...ultz&publication_year=1996

Peak-hour models are necessary to model transportation system changes (HOV lanes) and policy measures (peak-hour pricing) that vary by hour. It is evident that the temporal distribution of travelers has changed over the past several years, and this trend will likely continue in the future. Increasing congestion and the growing need for more flexibility in scheduling activities are thought to be the key motivators of this; the greater use of workplace flextime and the expanded operating hours of many businesses permit it to occur. A peak spreading model that accounts for congestion in determining the proportion of a.m. peak period vehicle traffic that will travel during the peak 1 hr is described. This model assumes that the proportion of the day's travel occurring during the a.m. peak 3 hr will remain stable over time. However, the proportion of the peak period's traffic occurring in the peak 1 hr is expected to vary with the level of congestion and trip length. Models were developed by trip purpose that "flatten" the a.m. peak 1 hr as congestion increases and as the trip length increases. This model was calibrated for the Washington, D.C., area on the basis of a 1987-1988 home interview survey and is presently being validated as part of the Dulles Corridor Transportation Study.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1556, Transportation Forecasting: Short-Term Practical Improvements, Travel Behavior Models and Issues, and Artificial Intelligence.

English

p. 8-15

1996

Transportation Research Record

0309059550

Figures (8) ; References (5) ; Tables (5)

Flexible hours; Mathematical models; Peak periods; Traffic congestion; Transportation; Trip length; Trip purpose; Validation

Transportation models

Washington Metropolitan Area

Washington Metropolitan Area

Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB

Feb 18 1997 12:00AM

• ANALYSIS OF STATED PREFERENCES FOR INTERMODAL BICYCLE-TRANSIT INTERFACES
• ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK-BASED APPROACH TO MODELING TRIP PRODUCTION
• ASSIGNING TRAFFIC OVER ESSENTIALLY-LEAST-COST PATHS
• COMPARABILITY AND TRANSFERABILITY OF COMMUTER BEHAVIOR CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN CITIES: DEPARTURE TIME AND ROUTE-SWITCHING DECISIONS
• FORECASTING BALANCED HIGHWAY VOLUMES USING MODELING PACKAGES AND SPREADSHEETS
• FUZZY FEEDBACK CONTROL FOR REAL-TIME DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ROUTING: USER EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FORMULATIONS AND CONTROLLER DESIGN
• HOUSEHOLD ACTIVITIES, LIFE CYCLE, AND ROLE ALLOCATION
• IMPLEMENTATION OF "HIGHWAY CAPACITY MANUAL"-BASED VOLUME-DELAY FUNCTIONS IN REGIONAL TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT PROCESS
• IMPROVED MODELING OF NON-HOME-BASED TRIPS
• INCORPORATING WORK TRIP ACCESSIBILITY IN NONWORK TRIP GENERATION MODELS IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
• MULTIVARIATE MARGINAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF ACTIVITY AND TRAVEL PATTERNS IN FIRST FOUR WAVES OF PUGET SOUND TRANSPORTATION PANEL
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• TRAVELER RESPONSE TO DAMAGED FREEWAYS AND TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM CHANGES FOLLOWING NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE
• TRIP END MODE SPLIT
• TWO-STAGE VEHICLE AVAILABILITY MODEL