00728422

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1542-03

http://scholar.google.com...reed&publication_year=1996

The reliability of different statistical road accident severity models is assessed using a number of criteria, such as goodness of fit, robustness of risk factor coefficients, and intuitive acceptability and consistency of output. The results of this analysis suggest that model reliability is not sensitive to the number of injury classes specified in the model or to the level of model aggregation. All models consistently identified the same risk factors as explaining most of the variation in injury experience in the data. These factors are (a) dynamics of the accident, (b) seating position of occupant, (c) use of seat belts, and (d) age of occupant involved. There is no indication that a significant transfer of error takes place from one severity level to another in a sequential model structure. The results suggest that reliability of statistical road accident severity models depends primarily on the accuracy of information provided in the accident data.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1542, Statistical Methods and Accident Analysis for Highway and Traffic Safety.

English

p. 14-23

1996

Transportation Research Record

0309059135

Figures (1) ; References (9) ; Tables (6)

Accuracy; Age; Crash causes; Crash data; Crashes; Dynamics; Injury severity; Mathematical models; Reliability; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Seat belt use; Seat belts; Seats

Seating position

Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics

TRIS, TRB

Nov 13 1996 12:00AM

• APPLICATIONS OF CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREE METHODS IN ROADWAY SAFETY STUDIES
• BAYESIAN ASSIGNMENT OF COVERAGE COUNT LOCATIONS TO FACTOR GROUPS AND ESTIMATION OF MEAN DAILY TRAFFIC
• DETECTION OF SAFETY DETERIORATION IN A SERIES OF ACCIDENT COUNTS
• IDENTIFICATION OF SITES WITH PROMISE
• METHODOLOGY FOR IDENTIFYING HIGHWAY SAFETY PROBLEM AREAS
• PITFALLS OF USING R-SQUARED TO EVALUATE GOODNESS OF FIT OF ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS
• RATE-QUALITY CONTROL METHOD OF IDENTIFYING HAZARDOUS ROAD LOCATIONS
• STATISTICAL TEST OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EXPECTED ACCIDENT FREQUENCIES