00711756

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...trr/1995/1475/1475-001.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...iaou&publication_year=1995

Vehicle scrappage or survival models provide estimates of the fraction of vehicles of each model year that survive to each later year. Earlier studies have suggested that many socioeconomic factors are associated with vehicle scrappage decisions, such as vehicle age, new vehicle price, household income, unemployment rate, used vehicle price, vehicle maintenance and repair cost, and interest rate for new car loans. However, most of the vehicle scrappage models used so far have been quite simple, using either vehicle age or new car price as determinants. The objectives of the research presented were to (a) develop a statistical vehicle scrappage model capable of describing the association between vehicle scrappage rate and a number of potential determinants such as those just suggested, (b) use the developed model to identify socioeconomic factors that may be associated with aggregate car scrappage rate in the United States using historical data and infer a car scrappage model for prediction purposes, and (c) illustrate how the suggested scrappage model can be used to predict car scrappage and survival rates.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1475, Environmental Issues: Energy, Water, Noise, Waste, and Natural Resources. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

01399800

English

p. 3-9

1995

Transportation Research Record

030906113X

Figures (5) ; References (15) ; Tables (2)

Forecasting; Mathematical models; Motor vehicles; Socioeconomic factors; Waste disposal

United States

Economics; Highways; Society; I10: Economics and Administration

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Sep 18 1995 12:00AM

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