00600790

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...trr/1990/1263/1263-003.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...lson&publication_year=1990

The exposure to risk of ship-bridge collisions at the Tappan Zee and Castleton-on-Hudson bridges on the Hudson River in New York State is evaluated in this paper. Provided are a description of the major factors affecting the potential for ship-bridge collisions and an estimate of the observed and potential frequency of ship-bridge accidents at the two bridges. A statistical analysis is used in this paper to predict the probability of a ship-bridge collision based on accident rates obtained for each class of bridges, defined here as the set of bridges over navigable waters in the United States of similar characteristics to the bridge of interest. The probability of an accident occurring at each of the two study bridges represents the average number of accidents that could occur each year. This can also be represented by the number of years between two consecutive accidents (or the return period). This is calculated by taking the direct inverse of the probability of occurrence of a ship-bridge accident. The return period found for the Tappan Zee Bridge was 55 years, and for the Castleton-on-Hudson Bridge the return period was 268 years. These results serve as indicators for precautionary measures to reduce the risk and severity of a ship-bridge collision.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1263, Ports, Waterways, Rail, and International Trade Issues 1990. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

01495456

p. 21-36

1990

Transportation Research Record

0309050197

Figures (3) ; References (8) ; Tables (7)

Bridges; Crashes; Forecasting; Risk analysis; Ships; Statistical analysis

New York (State)

Bridges and other structures; Data and Information Technology; Highways; Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; Vehicles and Equipment; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB

Oct 31 1990 12:00AM

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