00495486

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...trr/1989/1245/1245-002.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...heng&publication_year=1989

As public concern grows over the safety of hazardous materials transport, more policy emphasis is being placed on assessing the relative and absolute risks of various operations strategies. This is particularly apparent in the face of recent catastrophic events worldwide involving hazardous materials. At present, comprehensive hazardous materials transport risk assessments are difficult because of the paucity and poor quality of empirical data. These data problems are most acute for the rare, catastrophic event that is of primary concern to public safety officials. For these reasons, many approaches to risk estimation can be considered. This paper describes alternative approaches to hazardous materials transport risk estimation under conditions of limited data availability, including consideration of statistical inference, fault/event tree modeling, analytical and simulation techniques, subjective estimation, and Bayesian analysis. The hazardous materials transport problem is examined in terms of the feasibility of applying these techniques. Concern is raised over the likelihood of different approaches resulting in conflicting risk estimates, and a procedure for mediating these conflicts is discussed.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1245, Transportation of Hazardous Materials 1989. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

01414221

p. 14-22

1989

Transportation Research Record

0309049679

Figures (5) ; References (37) ; Tables (1)

Alternatives analysis; Feasibility analysis; Hazardous materials; Mathematical analysis; Methodology; Risk assessment; Supply; Variables

Availability; Data

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I80: Accident Studies

TRIS, TRB

Jul 31 1990 12:00AM

• BICRITERION ROUTING SCHEME FOR NUCLEAR SPENT FUEL TRANSPORTATION
• CHARACTERISTICS OF ACCIDENTS AND INCIDENTS IN HIGHWAY TRANSPORTATION OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
• COMBINED LOCATION-ROUTING MODEL FOR HAZARDOUS WASTE TRANSPORTATION AND DISPOSAL
• COMPARISON OF RISK MEASURES FOR THE TRANSPORT OF DANGEROUS COMMODITIES BY TRUCK AND RAIL
• MINIMIZING DERAILMENTS OF RAILCARS CARRYING DANGEROUS COMMODITIES THROUGH EFFECTIVE MARSHALING STRATEGIES