00494549

Component

https://onlinepubs.trb.or...trcircular/348/348-005.pdf

The author presented the results of a recent study, "Short and Medium Term Requirement for Jet Aircraft in North America". He described the Airbus Industries forecasting process which includes (a) factors affecting the pattern of aircraft orders, (b) elasticity of demand, (c) airline planning factors, and (d) the factors influencing orders for new aircraft. He described the Airbus "base case" approach, which includes likely cycles of the economy and fuel prices through 2003. He also discussed an increased congestion scenario which, if it becomes reality, would result in U.S. flights constrained at no more than 60% above current levels. He indicated that scenarios are used within Airbus to test the sensitivity of key factors or barriers, such as congestion, and to obtain a better understanding of industry dynamics.

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p. 35-38

1989-8

Transportation Research Circular

Digital/other

Figures (11)

Aviation; Forecasting; Methodology; Workshops

Airbus Industrie

Aviation; Highways; Planning and Forecasting

TRIS, TRB

May 31 1990 12:00AM

• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. AIRLINE METHODOLOGY - REVENUE FORECASTING AT TWA
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. AIRPORT OPERATOR METHODOLOGY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION METHODOLOGY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. SUMMARY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. U.S. AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURERS METHODOLOGY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. DEMOGRAPHICS - THE SPATIAL REDISTRIBUTION OF PEOPLE AND JOBS
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. MACROECONOMICS
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. MEGATRENDS: THE NAISBITT GROUP FORECASTING PROCESS
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. SUMMARY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. TECHNOLOGY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART III - DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS. SUMMARY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY: A SPECIAL WORKSHOP, TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD, WASHINGTON, D.C., APRIL 4-5, 1989