00494548

Component

https://onlinepubs.trb.or...trcircular/348/348-004.pdf

The author presented the key steps used in preparing Boeing's market forecasts which start with economic conditions on a global basis and end up with product forecast by type of aircraft, capacity needs, and available lift. He stated that it was important (a) to be explicit in the identification of key assumptions, (b) to use variations of judgmental assumptions to test their sensitivity, (c) to assess constraints, such as airport congestion, that affect demand, (d) to consider the financial health of the airlines and the manufacturing industry, and (e) to be as realistic as possible knowing that to err on the side of excessive conservatism or on the side of excessive optimism presents equal dangers. He indicated that the long-term nature of Boeing's forecasts (15 to 20 years) and the significant investments necessary to support new aircraft warrant careful review by many managers within the firm.

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p. 33-34

1989-8

Transportation Research Circular

Digital/other

Figures (2)

Aviation; Forecasting; Methodology; Workshops

Boeing aircraft; Boeing Company

Aviation; Highways; Planning and Forecasting

TRIS, TRB

May 31 1990 12:00AM

• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. AIRLINE METHODOLOGY - REVENUE FORECASTING AT TWA
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. AIRPORT OPERATOR METHODOLOGY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. EUROPEAN AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURERS' METHODOLOGY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION METHODOLOGY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. SUMMARY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. DEMOGRAPHICS - THE SPATIAL REDISTRIBUTION OF PEOPLE AND JOBS
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. MACROECONOMICS
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. MEGATRENDS: THE NAISBITT GROUP FORECASTING PROCESS
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. SUMMARY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. TECHNOLOGY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART III - DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS. SUMMARY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY: A SPECIAL WORKSHOP, TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD, WASHINGTON, D.C., APRIL 4-5, 1989