00494546

Component

https://onlinepubs.trb.or...trcircular/348/348-002.pdf

The author reviewed current Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) forecasting methodology and relevant literature and presented an analysis of the biases and omissions in many commonly used forecasting methods. He offered alternatives to the basic forecasting equation presently used by FAA and recommended that future research be directed toward improved understanding of the structure of fares and the role of traffic concentration at major hub airports. He also advocated less use of intuition in the forecasting process. He stated that using pre-deregulation data in current forecasting methods could produce under-forecasts of demand, which has been a problem in recent FAA forecasts.

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p. 9-29

1989-8

Transportation Research Circular

Digital/other

Figures (7) ; References; Tables (13)

Aviation; Forecasting; Methodology; Workshops

U.S. Federal Aviation Administration

Aviation; Highways; Planning and Forecasting

TRIS, TRB

May 31 1990 12:00AM

• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. AIRLINE METHODOLOGY - REVENUE FORECASTING AT TWA
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. AIRPORT OPERATOR METHODOLOGY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. EUROPEAN AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURERS' METHODOLOGY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. SUMMARY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. U.S. AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURERS METHODOLOGY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. DEMOGRAPHICS - THE SPATIAL REDISTRIBUTION OF PEOPLE AND JOBS
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. MACROECONOMICS
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. MEGATRENDS: THE NAISBITT GROUP FORECASTING PROCESS
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. SUMMARY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART II - OTHER PERSPECTIVES. TECHNOLOGY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART III - DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS. SUMMARY
• AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY: A SPECIAL WORKSHOP, TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD, WASHINGTON, D.C., APRIL 4-5, 1989