00477412

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...trr/1988/1158/1158-004.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...wski&publication_year=1988

This paper examines the quantitative reduction in risk associated with use of a weather briefing. It examines fatal weather accidents (accidents where weather is cited as a cause or a factor) that occurred during the 1964 to 1981 time period and documents statistics showing that pilots of these flights had a lower incidence of use of weather briefings than the pilot population overall. The study also notes that weather accidents represent almost 40 percent of all fatal accidents. They are characterized as being related most often to flight in low ceilings or when fog or rain is present. The types of pilot error in fatal weather accidents include continued visual flight into adverse weather conditions, improver preflight planning, and improper inflight decision making. The study uses Bayesian decision theory to estimate the probability of an accident with and without weather briefings from observable parameters such as the probability of an accident, the probability of use of weather briefings, and the probability that a fatal weather accident is about 2 1/2 to 3 times as likely if a flight did not have a weather briefing. The study also shows how increasing the incidence of use of weather briefings can reduce fatal weather accidents.

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Light Commercial and General Aviation. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

01492599

pp 21-28

1988

Transportation Research Record

030904667X

Print

Figures (1) ; References (10) ; Tables (12)

Air transportation; Airline pilots; Fatalities; Fog; Human error; Human factors in crashes; Probability; Rain; Statistics; Storms

Probabilistic analysis

Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors

TRIS, TRB

Nov 30 1988 12:00AM

• AN IDEALIZED MODEL FOR UNDERSTANDING IMPACTS OF KEY NETWORK PARAMETERS ON AIRLINE ROUTING
• DEFINING THE PHILADELPHIA REGIONAL RELIEVER AIRPORT SYSTEM
• DYNAMIC FORECASTING OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN NONSTOP AIR ROUTES
• ESTIMATION OF AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT NONTOWERED AIRPORTS IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY REGION
• IDENTIFYING POTENTIAL FUNDING SOURCES FOR AIRPORT CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS