00474263

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...trr/1986/1069/1069-016.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...Berg&publication_year=1986

A significant portion of recent research on rail-highway grade crossings has focused on the development of effectiveness ratios for various improvement actions and the incorporation of accident history into accident prediction and resource allocation procedures. Data are presented to demonstrate that these procedures can introduce significant bias and lead to a misallocation of resources. A preferred procedure is to use a modeling approach to estimate expected accident reductions and to ignore the adjustment of predicted accident rate based on recent accident history. The latter adjustment is shown to represent a modeling of the regression-to-the-mean phenomenon and as such is not appropriate for resource allocation studies.

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Railroad-Highway Grade Crossings. Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Traffic Control Devices. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

00490259

HS-040 105

Hopkins, John B

pp 88-100

1986

Transportation Research Record

0-309-04063-9

Print

Figures (12) ; References (12) ; Tables (2)

Bias (Statistics); Crash rates; Estimating; Forecasting; Improvements; Mathematical models; Measures of effectiveness; Railroad grade crossings; Resource allocation; Safety; Traffic safety

Effectiveness; Models

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Railroads; Safety and Human Factors; I73: Traffic Control

HSL, TRIS, TRB

Oct 31 1990 12:00AM

• A FURTHER NOTE ON UNDULATION AS A SPEED CONTROL DEVICE
• A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH FOR DETERMINING THE CHANGE INTERVAL (DISCUSSION AND CLOSURE)
• A REASSESSMENT OF THE TRAFFIC SIGNAL CHANGE INTERVAL
• ACCIDENT EXPERIENCE OF FLASHING TRAFFIC SIGNAL OPERATION IN PORTLAND, OREGON
• ADAPTING THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION RAIL-HIGHWAY CROSSING RESOURCE ALLOCATION MODEL TO THE MICROCOMPUTER
• ANALYTICAL WARRANT FOR SEPARATE LEFT-TURN PHASING (ABRIDGMENT)
• COUNTERING SIGN VANDALISM WITH PUBLIC SERVICE ADVERTISING (ABRIDGMENT)
• EFFECTIVENESS OF FLASHING BEACONS IN REDUCING ACCIDENTS AT A HAZARDOUS RURAL CURVE (ABRIDGMENT)
• GUIDELINES FOR PROTECTED/PERMISSIVE LEFT-TURN SIGNAL PHASING
• GUIDELINES FOR SELECTING TYPE OF LEFT-TURN PHASING
• RUMBLE STRIPS AND PAINT STRIPES AT A RURAL INTERSECTION
• THE EFFECTS OF WIDE EDGE LINES ON LATERAL PLACEMENT AND SPEED ON TWO-LANE RURAL ROADS
• THE SAFETY, ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF REQUIRING STOPS AT RAILROAD-HIGHWAY CROSSINGS
• THE USE OF CONSTANT WARNING TIME SYSTEMS AT RAIL-HIGHWAY GRADE CROSSINGS
• TIMING DESIGN OF SIGNAL CHANGE INTERVALS (DISCUSSION AND CLOSURE)
• TIMING DESIGN OF TRAFFIC SIGNALS
• VALIDATION OF A TRAFFIC MODEL