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Title:

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF PETROLEUM SHORTAGES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY

Accession Number:

00371338

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

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Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309033748

Abstract:

The major economic impacts that result from petroleum supply interruptions and the subsequent effects on the demand for freight transportation are described. The analysis involved a simulation of the effects of three different levels of fuel supply shortfall on intercity freight transportation. The research included the use of three economic and transportation models to simulate the economic impacts of oil shortfalls and the resulting change in freight transportation demand as expressed in tons shipped, ton miles of travel, and fuel use. Economic effects are discussed for a base case and then for 7, 14, and 23 percent petroleum shortfalls. The demand for freight transportation is determined by the output of various commodity sectors that generate traffic for the truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline modes. The effects of various diesel fuel price levels are also examined. The analysis suggests that at low, or controlled, fuel prices the more significant impacts for freight movements will be the reduction in output in the bulk commodity sectors, which are dominated by the waterway and rail modes. At high fuel prices (i.e., equilibrium levels), shipping is significantly decreased in all commodity sectors, but modal shifts are likely to occur from truck to rail and even from rail to water in some corridors. (Author)

Supplemental Notes:

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Energy Conservation and Transportation Demand. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Monograph Accession #:

00380410

Report/Paper Numbers:

HS-035 235

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Johnson, Larry R
Knorr, Rita E
Saricks, Christopher L
Mendiratta, Veena B

Pagination:

pp 48-54

Publication Date:

1982

Serial:

Transportation Research Record

Issue Number: 870
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
ISSN: 0361-1981

Conference:

61st Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board

Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
Date: 1982-1-18 to 1982-1-22

ISBN:

0309033748

Media Type:

Print

Features:

References (8) ; Tables (7)

Old TRIS Terms:

Subject Areas:

Economics; Energy; Freight Transportation; Geotechnology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I10: Economics and Administration

Files:

HSL, TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Mar 31 1983 12:00AM

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