00331264

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http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/trr/1980/768/768-004.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...ason&publication_year=1980

This paper examines the nature of the problem that faces air travelers confronted with choosing from among a variety of air fares, each associated with different service characteristics, and the problem of forecasting these decisions. A theoretical framework is developed that views the problem at the level of the individual traveler; the ticket-type choice is expressed in terms of the individual's socioeconomic characteristics, the characteristics of the trip in question, and the level of service associated with each available alternative. Logit models are suggested as the preferable functional form on the basis of theoretical and computational grounds, and the properties of logit models are briefly described. A pilot application of the method is presented for a two-alternative situation (full fare versus standby) by using a small sample of interview data collected from departing passengers at Boston's Logan Airport. A calibrated model is presented that demonstrates a statistically significant relationship between the ticket-type choice and the fare, fare differential, trip purpose, automobile ownership (as a proxy for income), and the passenger's perception of the delays that may be expected if flying standby. This application merely demonstrates a method and could easily be improved by using the airlines' onboard surveys for estimation. (Author)

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Aviation Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

01411588

pp 20-24

1980

Transportation Research Record

0309031125

Print

References (2) ; Tables (1)

Air transportation; Automobile ownership; Choice models; Decision making; Fares; Forecasting; Needs assessment; Passengers; Socioeconomic factors; Trip purpose

User needs

Aviation; Economics; Highways; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB

Oct 28 1981 12:00AM

• AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL NETWORK-PLANNING MODEL BASED ON SECOND-ORDER MARKOV CHAINS
• ASSESSING THE SAFETY AND RISK OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS: RISK ESTIMATION FROM RARE EVENTS
• ESTIMATING THE MARKET SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL AIR CARRIERS
• FORECASTING METHOD FOR GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT AND THEIR ACTIVITY
• FORECASTS OF AVIATION FUEL CONSUMPTION IN VIRGINIA
• FORECASTS OF PASSENGER AND AIR-CARGO ACTIVITY AT LOGAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
• METHOD FOR FORECASTING GENERAL AVIATION ACTIVITY
• METHOD OF ALLOCATING AIRPORT RUNWAY SLOTS