00331262

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/trr/1980/768/768-002.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...Kohn&publication_year=1980

This paper describes a study of the method used to develop demand-estimation models for itinerant and local movements of general aviation aircraft. The study area consisted of seven airports in the Maritime Provinces of Canada (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). Confidential data on aircraft movements were made available from the Aviation Statistics Centre for this study. Econometric models were developed for each airport separately, and one system model was developed for all traffic that flows on the 49 links between the seven airports. The approach used generation-distribution-type models in contrast to the pure generation models attempted by others and found to be only marginally successful. Cross-section demographic, economic, and system data for the base year 1975 were used. The adequacy of these models is analyzed in a series of statistical and intuitive tests. The model calibrated on link flows produced marginally acceptable results. Although the model is not recommended for detailed planning, it represents the first known attempt in Canada to calibrate, by using actual data, a model to forecast general aviation activity. In this context the work can be considered a departure point for the development of general aviation forecasting techniques for the Canadian transportation environment. (Authors)

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Aviation Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

01411588

pp 7-13

1980

Transportation Research Record

0309031125

Print

Figures (1) ; References (2) ; Tables (5)

Aircraft; Aviation; Data collection; Demand; Demographics; Econometric models; Economic factors; Forecasting; Traffic flow

Aviation; Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society; Vehicles and Equipment; I10: Economics and Administration

TRIS, TRB

Oct 28 1981 12:00AM

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