01704671

Monograph

http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/179073.aspx

This report establishes a new approach to the analysis of future consumer demand for shorter-distance air travel in comparison with travel by automobile. The fundamental finding of this research is that future demand for shorter-range airline trips is both volatile and unstable, affected by changes in technology as well as consumer preferences. Through application of new research tools that support scenario analysis, the report concludes that evolving automobile technology could diminish demand for shorter-range air trips, both in terms of distance to ultimate destination as well as access to larger airports. Alternatively, changes in aircraft technology could increase demand for short-distance air travel by creating improvements that decrease the operating cost of short flights. Most probably, the future will bring changes affected by both emerging trends. The research can help managers of smaller airports develop a better understanding of how consumers choose between flying out of a smaller hometown airport to connect to a larger airport and taking a longer automobile drive, bypassing the smaller airport, to fly directly from a larger airport. In the longer term, public policy may need to consider the changing role of automobiles for long-distance travel and the potential economic impacts of decreasing demand for air service to and from smaller regional airports. This research has created an analytical framework that facilitates comparison of the two competing modes under changing technology and demographic conditions as well as consumer choice.

Project 03-40

English

115p

2019

ACRP Research Report

9780309480833

Digital/other

Bibliography; Figures; Tables

Air travel; Airport access; Automobile travel; Modal shift; Mode choice; Travel demand; Trip length

Aviation; Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

May 15 2019 10:13AM