01711313

Component

https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198119849899

Hotspot identification is an important step in the highway safety management process. Errors in hotspot identification (HSID) may result in an inefficient use of limited resources for safety improvements. The empirical Bayesian (EB) HSID has been widely applied as an effective approach in identifying hotspots. However, there are some limitations with the EB approach. It assumes that the parameter estimates of the safety performance function (SPF) are correct without any uncertainty, and does not consider temporal instability in crashes, which has been reported in recent studies. The Bayesian hierarchical model is an emerging technique that addresses the limitations of the EB method. Thus, the objective of this study is to compare the performance of the standard EB method and the Bayesian hierarchical model in identifying hotspots. Three methods (crash rate, EB, and the Bayesian hierarchical model) were applied to identify risky intersections with different significance levels. Four evaluation tests (site consistency, method consistency, total rank differences, and Poisson mean differences tests) were conducted to assess the performance of these three methods. The testing results suggest that: (1) the Bayesian hierarchical model outperforms the crash rate and the EB methods in most cases, and the Bayesian hierarchical model improves the accuracy of HSID significantly; and (2) hotspots identified with crash rates are generally unreliable. This is significant for roadway agencies and practitioners trying to accurately rank sites in the roadway network to effectively manage safety investments. Roadway agencies and practitioners are encouraged to consider the Bayesian hierarchical model in identifying hotspots.

The Standing Committee on Highway Safety Performance (ANB25) peer-reviewed this paper (19-03519). © National Academy of Sciences: Transportation Research Board 2019.

19-03519

English

pp 111-121

2019-7

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

Digital/other

References (41) ; Tables

Alternatives analysis; Bayes' theorem; Crash locations; Crash rates; High risk locations; Highway safety; Mathematical models

Bayesian models; Empirical Bayes method; Hierarchical Bayes methods

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Apr 26 2019 1:27PM