01698163

Component

In safety literature, there are two ways to incorporate the potential correlation between multiple crash frequency variables: (1) simulation-based approach and (2) analytical closed form approach. The current research effort proposed a comparison between simulation-based multivariate model and copula-based closed form approach to analyze zonal level crash counts for different crash types. The empirical analysis is based on traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level crash count data for both motorized and non-motorized crashes from Central Florida for the year 2016. A comprehensive set of exogenous variables including roadway, built environment, land-use, traffic, socio-demographic and spatial spillover characteristics are considered for the analysis. The resulting data fit and prediction performance offered by the copula-based approach clearly highlights the copula-based approach’s superiority over the simulation-based multivariate model. The applicability of the model for hot zone identification is illustrated by generating plots identifying hot and cold zones by crash type in the Central Florida region.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANB20 Standing Committee on Safety Data, Analysis and Evaluation.

19-05507

English

11p

2019

Transportation Research Board 98th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References (13) ; Tables

Crash characteristics; Crash data; Crash rates; High risk locations; Mathematical models; Traffic analysis zones

Central Florida

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2019 Paper #19-05507

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 7 2018 9:47AM