01698084

Component

Traffic oscillations are generated even if the road does not experiment any geometrical change. The formation and propagation of oscillations in a homogeneous road is due to the evident randomness observed in empirical data, which may be generated by drivers’ behavior, acceleration and deceleration processes, vehicles, roads and environmental conditions. This paper proposes a stochastic LWR model that succeed in represent the instabilities observed in the experimental field. The model introduces a stochastic term in the deterministic model definition and solves the problem by converting it to an equivalent car-following model in Lagrangian coordinates. This simple model is validated using Monte Carlo simulation method, which allows to prove their convergence with the deterministic and theoretical approach. Moreover, the convergence analysis stands out the trend of the standard deviation of the speed and allows us to define a formulation for any following vehicle. The calibration of the model is made by analyzing empirical data and proving the match between the stochastic model and experimental observations. Also, the main stochastic parameter is calibrated by formulating an accurate dependency on the free-flow speed of the model. Further studies will introduce bounded acceleration to prove the reliability of the model.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AHB45 Standing Committee on Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics.

19-04861

English

17p

2019

Transportation Research Board 98th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References (21)

Behavior; Car following; Geometric segments; Mathematical models; Monte Carlo method; Traffic flow; Traffic speed

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2019 Paper #19-04861

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 7 2018 9:45AM