01698049

Component

In this study, the authors develop an advanced econometric model that consider the potential endogeneity of stop level headway in modeling bus ridership. Lower headway for stops is generally determined by choice as these stops are expected to have higher ridership. The authors consider headway endogeneity by proposing a simultaneous equation system that considers headway and ridership in a joint framework. The proposed model is developed employing stop level ridership data from the Orlando region for 11 four-month time periods. The presence of multiple data points for each stop allows the authors to develop panel models for headway, boarding, and alighting. The headway variable is modeled using a panel ordered logit model while the ridership variables are modeled using a panel group ordered logit models. The model estimation results justify the consideration of headway endogeneity in bus ridership analysis. To illustrate the value of the proposed model, validation exercise and policy analysis are also conducted.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP050 Standing Committee on Bus Transit Systems.

19-06089

English

9p

2019

Transportation Research Board 98th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Boarding and alighting; Bus transit; Case studies; Econometrics; Headways; Logits; Ridership

Orlando (Florida)

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2019 Paper #19-06089

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 7 2018 9:45AM