01697658

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This paper introduces two multilinear models for capturing bus passenger boarding/alighting (BA) times at bus stops using empirical data from King County Metro in Seattle, Washington. The first model is a classical frequentist model, while the second is a stochastic model developed using bootstrapping together with a Cholesky decomposition. Three variables are considered in the aforementioned models to estimate passenger BA times, namely; the number of alighting passengers, the number of boarding passengers, and the number of passengers on board the bus. The models show that the passenger BA time increases with an increase in all three variables (i.e. positive model coefficients). Both models were developed using 8,341 empirical observations. The Cholesky decomposition technique was applied to bootstrapped data to capture the model coefficient correlations with the use of only nine parameters (coefficient means, variances, and correlations) while capturing the stochasticity observed in the empirical data.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP050 Standing Committee on Bus Transit Systems.

19-02703

English

5p

2019

Transportation Research Board 98th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Boarding and alighting; Bus stops; Mathematical models; Passengers; Stochastic processes; Transit buses

King County Metro Transit

Seattle (Washington)

Operations and Traffic Management; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2019 Paper #19-02703

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 7 2018 9:33AM