01697601

Component

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are on their way to becoming a significant part of our transportation systems and cities. Previous studies have mainly focused on how much AVs could improve traffic flow and reduce congestion or improve safety. Reducing congestion and the cost of travel time is also expected to increase travel demand, but by how much is not well understood. This study, located in Albuquerque, New Mexico, uses an integrated travel demand and land-use modeling system to evaluate how AVs may affect congestion, travel demand and land use. The authors' modeling system considers how traffic patterns, travel demand and land use evolve year-over-year, providing a more comprehensive picture of how AVs may the growth of a region and traffic. Considering scenarios with 100% market share of AVs, the authors find, as others have, large reductions in congestion but they also find a moderate increase in vehicle miles traveled and average trip length. They also find that AVs may shift population and employment growth to suburban and fringe areas, and along previously congested highway corridors, further decentralizing the Albuquerque region. The increase in vehicle miles of travel (VMT) raises air quality and climate change concerns as vehicle air pollutant emissions may also increase. The authors' results demonstrate that AVs are likely to have an important effect on land use and that integrated land-use and travel demand models should be used to more fully understand the potential traffic impacts of AVs.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB10 Standing Committee on Traveler Behavior and Values.

19-02103

English

0000-0001-6885-1010

8p

2019

Transportation Research Board 98th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Autonomous vehicles; Land use; Land use models; Traffic congestion; Travel behavior; Travel demand; Travel time; Vehicle miles of travel

Albuquerque (New Mexico)

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2019 Paper #19-02103

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 7 2018 9:32AM