01663065

Component

Traditionally, in developing non-motorized crash prediction models safety researchers have employed land use and urban form variables as surrogate for exposure information (such as pedestrian, bicyclist volumes and vehicular traffic). The quality of these crash prediction models is affected by the lack of “true” non-motorized exposure data. High-resolution modeling frameworks such as activity-based or trip-based approach could be pursued for evaluating planning level non-motorist demand. However, running a travel demand model system to generate demand inputs for non-motorized safety is cumbersome and resource intensive. The current study is focused on addressing this drawback by developing an integrated non-motorized demand and crash prediction framework for mobility and safety analysis. Towards this end, the authors propose a three-step framework to evaluate non-motorists safety: (1) develop aggregate level models for non-motorist generation and attraction at a zonal level, (2) develop non-motorists trip exposure matrices for safety evaluation and (3) develop aggregate level non-motorists crash frequency and severity proportion models. The framework is developed for the Central Florida region using non-motorist demand data from National Household Travel Survey (2009) Florida Add-on and non-motorist crash frequency and severity data from Florida. The applicability of the framework is illustrated through extensive policy scenario analysis.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANB20 Standing Committee on Safety Data, Analysis and Evaluation.

18-06103

English

9p

2018

Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Crash exposure; Crash rates; Crash severity; Nonmotorized transportation; Simulation; Travel demand; Trip generation

Florida

Highways; Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2018 Paper #18-06103

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 8 2018 11:34AM