01657452

Component

Automation may induce more travel demand, posing a threat to energy security and environmental quality unless the induced travel demand is served with more efficient or clean fuel technologies. This study attempts to analyze whether automation may promote or discourage market acceptance of plug-in electric vehicles. A consumer choice model called MA3T-MC is developed to cover automated vehicles by expanding the existing MA3T model that focuses only on fuel type choices. Key findings include: 1) automation may increase sales shares of gasoline conventional vehicles and decrease shares of efficient vehicles including HEVs and PHEVs, due to greater energy cost savings for less efficient vehicles. 2) Automation may increase market shares of BEVs, due to the “free” range extension from the efficiency improvement by automation. 3) consumer heterogeneity is important in quantifying the national impact of automation on sales shares by fuel types and the total energy use.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADC80 Standing Committee on Alternative Transportation Fuels and Technologies. Alternate title: Will Automation Accelerate or Decelerate Electrification: Modeling Demand for Automated Electric Vehicles.

18-06046

English

6p

2018

Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References

Automated vehicle control; Automation; Consumer preferences; Electric vehicles; Intelligent vehicles; Market penetration; Travel demand; Vehicle range

Energy; Highways; Vehicles and Equipment

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2018 Paper #18-06046

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 8 2018 11:34AM