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Title:

Uncertainty and Stochasticity in Traffic Simulation: A Theoretical Framework

Accession Number:

01661049

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

This paper attempts to clarify how uncertainty affects stochastic traffic simulation. The nature of uncertainty in both real systems and models is described and compared, distinguishing between heterogeneity and stochasticity. Taxonomy, useful to describe the uncertainty flow throughout a model is introduced, defining uncertainty sources and causes, i.e. mechanisms triggering uncertainty. The proposed conceptual framework is applied to shed light on crucial issues such as error compensation and model overfitting. Eventually, a general framework to manage the uncertainty in a traffic modelling process is introduced and its basic implications on current traffic simulation practice are outlined.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AHB45 Standing Committee on Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics.

Report/Paper Numbers:

18-05269

Language:

English

Authors:

Punzo, Vincenzo
Montanino, Marcello

Pagination:

13p

Publication Date:

2018

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References

Subject Areas:

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2018 Paper #18-05269

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 8 2018 11:19AM