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Title:

Developing a Global Road Safety Model

Accession Number:

01664102

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

Road accidents constitute a major social problem in modern societies, with road traffic injuries being estimated to be the eighth leading cause of death globally. The need for action based on evidence based policy making becomes more and more pronounced. In this context, this paper presents SafeFITS, a global road safety model, developed for the United Nations Economic Committee for Europe, which is based on global historical road safety data (72 indicators for 130 countries) and may serve as a road safety decision making tool for three types of policy analysis, i.e. intervention, benchmarking and forecasting analysis. A hierarchical conceptual framework of five layers of the road safety system is suggested (namely, economy and management, transport demand and exposure, road safety measures, road safety performance indicators, and road safety outcomes), and a dedicated database was developed with various road safety indicators for each layer. A two-step approach was opted for the purposes of the research, including the calculation of composite variables and then their introduction in a regression model, and the development of a model on the basis of short-term differences, accumulated to obtain medium- and long-term forecasts. The model developed has overall satisfactory performance and acceptable prediction errors, and preliminary validation provided encouraging results. Its usage might be proved highly useful for testing road safety policies, taking however into account the model limitations, mostly related to data availability and accuracy, and the recommendations for its optimal use.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANB10 Standing Committee on Transportation Safety Management.

Report/Paper Numbers:

18-05057

Language:

English

Authors:

Yannis, George
Papadimitriou, Eleonora
Folla, Katerina
Nikolic, Nenad
Molnar, Eva

Pagination:

16p

Publication Date:

2018

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References (18) ; Tables

Subject Areas:

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Safety and Human Factors

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2018 Paper #18-05057

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 8 2018 11:16AM