01658551

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Natural and man-created disasters, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, accidents and terrorist attacks, require fast evacuation. However, in extreme cases, such as earthquakes, road network infrastructures may adversely be affected, and may not supply their required capacities. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the network capacity, and to decrease the evacuation time. Network capacity can be increased, if the potential damage to critical roads segments can be identified in advance and retrofitted. Evacuation time can be further decreased if the evacuation process is managed, meaning that all evacuees are being evacuated along predefined routes. However, managing the whole network is practically impossible, as rescue teams must be present at each intersection or road segment. This paper focuses on the development of a model that addresses these two objectives, and minimizes the evacuation time, the retrofit costs and the number of managed road segments. The selection of the managed road segments is based on the evacuation time difference between the system optimum and user equilibrium assignments. Due to the complexity of the model, a bi-level heuristic was developed. A case study of a real-world network confirms the usefulness of the algorithm. The results show that managing 4 road segments out of over 1,000 road segments, can reduce the evacuation time from 404 vehicle hours traveled (VHT) to 378 VHT. This is a 44% reduction of the evacuation time when compared to the fully managed network (361 VHT).

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABR30 Standing Committee on Emergency Evacuations. Alternate title: Optimal Evacuation Planning Under a Partial Traffic Management Regime

18-03795

English

17p

2018

Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Disaster preparedness; Disasters; Disasters and emergency operations; Evacuation; Heuristic methods; Highway traffic control; Mathematical models; Multiple criteria decision making; Network analysis (Planning); Optimization; Retrofitting; Routing; Travel time

Bilevel optimization

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2018 Paper #18-03795

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 8 2018 10:56AM