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Title:

In Forecasts We Trust? Correlates with Ridership Forecast Accuracy for Fixed-Guideway Transit Projects

Accession Number:

01663626

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

The accuracy of ridership forecasts for fixed-guideway transit projects in the United States has improved substantially in recent decades. A better understanding of the causes for this improvement can help forecasters continue to improve forecasting and help project evaluators identify ridership forecasts that are most likely to be reliable. The analysis in this paper applies a series of linear regression models to evaluate the relationship between ridership forecast accuracy for 64 New Starts projects completed between 1983 and 2011 and four types of project characteristics: time between forecast and observation, local experience with the project mode, physical characteristics, and financial characteristics. The results indicate that local experience and financial characteristics are not significantly related to forecast accuracy, but there are differences by project mode, where forecasts for commuter rail projects are less accurate than those for other modes. The time until ridership observation does relate to forecast accuracy. However, not all of this elapsed time is important. The length of time required for project planning and development does not have a significant relationship with forecast error, nor does the total time between forecast preparation and ridership observation. However, the length of time required to construct the project is significantly associated with the accuracy of the ridership forecast. This may indicate that additional time spent on project planning and development can increase the likelihood that actual ridership will meet forecast values if that additional time is effective in reducing the length of time that would be required to construct the project.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP025 Standing Committee on Public Transportation Planning and Development.

Report/Paper Numbers:

18-03343

Language:

English

Authors:

Voulgaris, Carole Turley

ORCID 0000-0003-0556-924X

Pagination:

14p

Publication Date:

2018

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References; Tables

Geographic Terms:

United States

Subject Areas:

Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2018 Paper #18-03343

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 8 2018 10:49AM