01659637

Component

https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198118788430

This paper represents an effort by the New York City Department of Transportation (NYCDOT) to develop, by means of geographically weighted regression (GWR), an empirical pavement deterioration model for the five boroughs of New York City. Evaluation of probabilistic and deterministic models from existing literature, as well as statistical modeling techniques and applications, were examined to inform model selection. A model using GWR was selected as the preferred methodology. Validation tests demonstrated an adjusted R2 of .808 and a standard error (s) representing 4.8% of the mean. Emphasis is placed on the novelty and practicality of GWR as a means for pavement deterioration prediction. Future applications of this model will aid decision makers in strategically allocating limited funds to priority projects.

18-03144

English

pp 166-175

2018-12

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

Print

Figures (3) ; References (27) ; Tables (1)

Asset management; Deterioration; Mathematical models; Mathematical prediction; Pavements; Validation

New York City Department of Transportation

Geographically weighted regression

New York (New York)

Highways; Pavements

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 8 2018 10:46AM

• A Cost-Effective and Objective Full-Depth Patching Identification Method using 3D Sensing Technology with Automated Crack Detection and Classification
• A Long-Term Performance Evaluation of an Experimental Concrete Overlay
• A Tale of Two Pavements: Forensic Investigation of an Unbonded Concrete Overlay and a Concrete Pavement Reconstruction on I-40 near Flagstaff, Arizona
• An Area-Based Faulting Measurement Method Using Three-Dimensional Pavement Data
• Application of Traffic Speed Deflectometer for Network-Level Pavement Management
• Assessment of Equivalent Thickness Design Principles for Geosynthetic Reinforced Pavements by Way of Accelerated Testing
• Calibrating the Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide Rutting Models using Accelerated Pavement Testing
• Cold Central Plant Recycled Asphalt Pavements in High Traffic Applications
• Comparing the Bonded Concrete Overlays of Asphalt-Mechanistic Empirical Design Procedure and the Short Jointed Plain Concrete Pavement Module in the Pavement Mechanistic Empirical Design Procedure
• Comparing Traffic Speed Deflectometer and Falling Weight Deflectometer Data
• Damage Assessment for ME Rehabilitation Design of Modified Asphalt Pavements: Challenges and Findings
• Determining the Age and Smoothness of Asphalt and Concrete Pavements at the Time of First Rehabilitation using Long-Term Pavement Performance Program Data
• Development of a Structural Capacity Prediction Model Based on Traffic Speed Deflectometer Measurements
• Development of Artificial Neural Networks for Predicting the Response of Bonded Concrete Overlays of Asphalt for Use in a Faulting Prediction Model
• Development of Domain Analysis to Predict Multi-Axial Flexible Airfield Pavement Responses Due to Gear and Environmental Loadings
• Development of Structural Design Guidelines for Porous Asphalt Pavement
• Effect of Methodological Choices on Pavement Life-Cycle Assessment
• Effects of the International Roughness Index and Rut Depth on Crash Rates
• Establishing the Interlayer Structural Response for Unbonded Concrete Overlays of Existing Concrete Pavements
• Estimation of Gravel Roads Ride Quality Through an Android-Based Smartphone
• Evaluation of a Line Laser Scanner to Improve the Measurement of Average Least Dimension in Chip Seal Design Methods
• Evaluation of Hydroplaning Risk on Permeable Friction Course using Tire–Water–Pavement Interaction Model
• Fatigue Performance Prediction of Asphalt Pavements with FlexPAVETM, the S-VECD Model, and DR Failure Criterion
• Field Investigation of Relationship between Pavement Surface Texture and Friction
• Finite Element Studies of Skid Resistance under Hot Weather Condition
• Identification of Potential Location and Extent of Localized Interface Debonding in the Wheelpath of Asphalt Pavements
• Impact of Wide-Base Tires on Pavements: A National Study
• Improved Backcalculation Procedure for Continuously Reinforced Concrete Pavement
• Incorporation of Endurance Limit in the Mechanistic-Empirical Flexible Perpetual Pavement Design
• Interconversion of Locked-Wheel and Continuous Friction Measurement Equipment (CFME) Friction Measurements
• International Roughness Index Prediction Model for Thin Hot Mix Asphalt Overlay Treatment of Flexible Pavements
• Issues in the Prediction of the Mechanical Properties of Open Graded Mixes
• Local Calibration of the MEPDG Distress and Performance Models for Ontario’s Flexible Roads: Overview, Impacts, and Reflection
• Mechanistic-Empirical Simulations and Life-Cycle Cost Analysis to Determine the Cost and Performance Effectiveness of Asphalt Mixtures Containing Recycled Materials
• Numerical and Experimental Predictions of Texture-Related Influences on Rolling Resistance
• Pavement Friction Modeling using Texture Measurements and Pendulum Skid Tester
• Pavement Risk Assessment for Future Extreme Precipitation Events under Climate Change
• Performance of Concrete Overlays on Illinois Interstates, 1967 through 2016
• Protocol for FWD Data Collection at Network-Level Pavement Management in Iran
• Quality Management Program for Pavement Condition Data Collected on the National Highway System
• The Impact of Pavement Albedo on Radiative Forcing and Building Energy Demand: Comparative Analysis of Urban Neighborhoods
• Time-Series Review of Highway Performance Monitoring System Data
• Towards a Reliability-Based Pavement Design using Response Surface Methods