01664275

Component

https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198118774234

https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198118774234

Planning resiliency and sustainability of port operations and critical infrastructure requires risk assessment of storm surge exposure and potential sea level rise. An approach for rapid, screening-level assessment is developed to estimate the current and future risk of exposure to severe storm surges posed to marine terminal facilities in Norfolk, Virginia. The approach estimates the vertical elevation of local mean sea level fifty years into the future and attendant increases in potential storm surge heights. Inundation models are designed for baseline water levels and storm surges for category 1–3 hurricanes across five precautionary future sea level rise scenarios. In addition, tidal flooding poses an emerging threat because sea level rise will also force tides to higher elevations, suggesting that today’s extreme high tides may be the future mean high tide and today’s “nuisance” tidal flooding may in the future recur with chronic regularity. Potential tidal flooding levels are also modeled for each sea level scenario. This approach allows a port to assess relative risk tolerance across the range from lesser to more severe flooding events. Maps and tabular information in linked scenarios are used to summarize the extent, pattern, and depth of potential flooding. The methodology and data developed in this study may be applied to inform the timing and placement of planned assets and can be leveraged in the broader pursuit of optimization in support of long-term master planning at marine terminals.

18-02516

English

pp 19-29

2018

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

Print

Figures (6) ; References (32)

Floods; Geographic information systems; Infrastructure; Marine terminals; Risk assessment; Sea level; Storm surges; Transportation planning

Geospatial analysis

Hydraulics and Hydrology; Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Terminals and Facilities

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 8 2018 10:36AM

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