00301064

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http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/trr/1979/704/704-003.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...EYER&publication_year=1979

The results of a study conducted to develop a model of waterway user charge impacts and test the model on a case study region are summarized. The model developed is a Markov decision theory model with an implied transition period of five years. The transition probabilities were estimated subjectively based on a state space defined by change in freight traffic movement. Reward estimates were based on multiple criteria such as change in shipping costs and change in equity. The rewards were developed from a variation on the rank-based expected-value method of evaluation. These were also produced subjectively based on the results of previous studies. The input on the upper Mississippi River case study site was processed by a Markov decision theory computer program. Considerable sensitivity analysis on rewards and transition probabilities was done. In the majority of cases, the alternative of no user charge was favored. In certain periods of high growth in freight traffic, a low-level fuel tax was favored. The case study results themselves are not as significant as the problem structuring that was accomplished and the introduction of time and nonmonetary criteria into the evaluation process. /Author/

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Inland Water Transportation. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

01411539

pp 14-20

1979

Transportation Research Record

58th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board

0309029503

Print

Figures (2) ; Maps; References (17)

Analysis; Benefit cost analysis; Costs; Freight transportation; Fuels; Inland waterways; Markov processes; Mathematical models; Taxation; User charges

Midwestern States

Midwestern States

Economics; Energy; Finance; Freight Transportation; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; Society

TRIS, TRB

Nov 27 1979 12:00AM

• ASSESSMENT OF THE TEXAS DEEPWATER TERMINAL
• INLAND NAVIGATION SIMULATION MODEL: VERIFICATION AND EVALUATION
• METHOD FOR ESTIMATING NONPHYSICAL, TRANSPORTATION-RELATED BUSINESS LOSSES CAUSED BY FLOODING ON THE INLAND RIVER SYSTEM
• PROJECTING THE DEMAND FOR OHIO RIVER BASIN WATERWAY TRAFFIC BY CORRELATION AND REGRESSION
• WATERWAY USER CHARGES: SOME LIKELY IMPACTS IN THE TENNESSEE AREA