01626121

Component

This paper develops double-cohort models to study the impact of demographic shifts on the aggregate commute mode choices in Los Angeles County, California from 2000 to 2010. Specifically, the models construct demographic cohorts by year of birth and immigration and study three commuting modes: automobiles, driving alone and carpooling. Using Integrated Public Use Microdata Seris (IPUMS) datasets on 2000 Census and 2009-2011 American Community Survey (ACS), the author found statistically significant effects on commuting mode choices across different cohorts in years 2000 and 2010. The trajectory charts show that the native-born younger generations are three-percent less possible to commute by automobiles than the older ones when reaching the same age levels, while the new immigrants staying in the US for less than ten years showed a strong increase in their expected probabilities of commuting by automobiles from 2000 to 2010. A simple projection shows that these two aforementioned demographic shifts: generational change and immigration assimilation push the aggregated preferences in commuting by automobiles to different directions. The projection shows there will be 82.5 to 84.0 percent of workers commuting by automobiles in 2020.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE30 Standing Committee on Transportation Issues in Major Cities.

01618707

17-06762

English

18p

2017

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Carpools; Census; Commuting; Demographics; Forecasting; Mode choice; Single occupant vehicles

American Community Survey; Public Use Microdata Sample

Cohort analysis; Microdata

Los Angeles County (California)

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Policy

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-06762

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 8 2016 12:47PM