01629504

Component

Indicator-based assessments are increasingly being used by transportation organizations throughout the United States in order to screen assets and operations for vulnerabilities to changes in climate. While these assessments provide opportunities to systematically think through questions of vulnerability, deficiencies still exist in the accuracy of indicators to accurately predict on-the-ground results. The accuracy of indicator-based assessments varies by climate hazard. Predictions of slow, long-term changes in climate are potentially easier to make than indicator-based predictions of extreme events, particularly those with no historical analogue. This analysis sought to improve desk-based vulnerability screening analyses for one of the most difficult hazards, extreme inland precipitation, using the October 2015 flooding in South Carolina as a case study. It used U.S. Department of Transportation’s (DOT) Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool (VAST) to retroactively assess the vulnerability of roads and bridges to inland flooding in Richland County, South Carolina. The analysis then compared the results of VAST indicators with on-the-ground impacts in the county. This analysis found some strong indicators for bridges. Location within the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 100- and 500- year floodplains serve as strong indicators of both exposure and sensitivity, and Functional Classification is a good indicator of how quickly bridge service will be restored. Opportunities to improve desk-based vulnerability screening analyses also exist. Incorporating surrounding or “upstream” infrastructure, particularly water control structures, may provide additional accuracy when assessing exposure. Mining institutional knowledge will build insight into sensitivity beyond plain asset attributes, and can shed light on key questions and factors that influence community resilience.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee A0020T Special Task Force on Climate Change and Energy. Alternate title: Validation of Indicator-Based Vulnerability Assessment Approach: Retrospective of October 2015 South Carolina Flooding.

01618707

17-05324

English

11p

2017

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; Photos; Tables

Accuracy; Bridges; Case studies; Climate change; Disaster resilience; Flood plains; Floods; Risk assessment; Validation

U.S. Department of Transportation

South Carolina

Bridges and other structures; Environment; Highways; Planning and Forecasting

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-05324

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 8 2016 12:05PM