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Title:

Truncated Bayesian Non-parametric Modeling of Multistate Travel Time Distribution

Accession Number:

01631436

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

Multi-state models are preferred over single-state probability models in modeling the distribution of travel time. Literature review indicated that the finite multi-state modeling of travel time using lognormal distribution was superior to other probability functions. In this study, the authors extend the finite multi-state lognormal model in estimating the travel time distribution to unbounded lognormal distribution. In particular, a non-parametric Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM) with stick-breaking process representation was used. The strength of the DPMM is that it can choose the number of components dynamically as part of the algorithm during parameter estimation. To reduce computational complexity, the modeling process was limited to a maximum of six components. Then, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques were employed to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters. Speed data from nine links of a freeway corridor, aggregated on 5-minutes basis, were used to calculate the travel time on each link. The results demonstrated that this model offers significant flexibility in modeling to account for complex mixture distributions such as travel time without specifying the number of components. The DPMM modeling further revealed that freeway travel time is characterized by multi-state and single-state depending on the inclusion of onset and offset of congestion periods. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov hypothesis test of the model was conducted and the results showed a reasonable fit.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABJ80 Standing Committee on Statistical Methods.

Monograph Accession #:

01618707

Report/Paper Numbers:

17-04724

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Kidando, Emmanuel
Moses, Ren
Ozguven, Eren Erman

ORCID 0000-0001-6006-7635

Sando, Thobias

Pagination:

17p

Publication Date:

2017

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2017-1-8 to 2017-1-12
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Geographic Terms:

Jacksonville (Florida)

Subject Areas:

Highways; Planning and Forecasting

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-04724

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Dec 8 2016 11:48AM